Is your simulation doing what you think it is doing? Uncertainty Assessment and Quantification in a land-use case study

Seminários PPGInf 20/05/16 - 14h - Sala Multiuso CIC

Palestrante: Carolina Abreu (orientadora: Prof. Célia G. Ralha)
Título: Is your simulation doing what you think it is doing? Uncertainty Assessment and Quantification in a land-use case study

Resumo: Computer models have become an indispensable tool in geophysics and ecology for simulating the behavior of complex dynamical systems. However, computer simulations inherently involve uncertainties. Therefore, identifying and quantifying those uncertainties is critical to enable researchers to make precise statements about the degree of confidence they have in their simulation-based prediction. We present MASE-BDI, a multiagent system for environmental simulation that implements agents rationality through the belief-desire-intention mentalistic model. We implemented a semi-automatic integration with the software toolkit for uncertainty quantification PSUADE - Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration. We propose some verification and validation (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to evaluate multiagent simulations and agent models. The application of this methodology in a land use case study is discussed and some initial results are presented.